Causal Network Topology Analysis

One of the challenges with managing risks in practice is the appreciation of context. Partially, this is because context is multidimensional. For example, risk events forming the risk landscape of a company have a:

1. Causal context – the cause of a risk can be the consequence of another;
2. They are managed in an organisational context – departmental silos can hamper effective risk treatment by unintentionally creating new risks in other parts of the organisation;  
3. Relevant information to understand these risks is often dispersed across various data sources and formats, highlighting the complexity of their informational context, and; 
4. Having many stakeholders can introduce uncertainty and subjectivity into the analysis from the social context. 

There are many useful approaches for improving understanding of and an ability to integrate these contexts when performing risk assessment. One method currently being studied at the University of Queensland is called Causal Network Topology Analysis (CaNeTA), a complementary approach to traditional risk assessment. A set of causally connected risk events, from a variety of data sources, risk categories and stakeholder perspectives, are connected together, forming a causal scenario. This scenario is then visualised as a causal network, modelled using weighted directed graph. The structure, or topology, of this causal network is then analysed to indicate alternate ways of thinking about the task of risk analysis and treatment. For example, the topology analysis shows each risk in its causal context , indicating its causal importance in that scenario as a whole. This information augments what is already known about their likelihood and consequence severity to enhance prioritisation of risk events for subsequent treatment. 

CaNeTA has broad applicability, relevant not only for safety risk assessment, but also to project feasibility studies, cultural heritage disaster analysis, fire safety strategy development, mine rehabilitation planning and infrastructure sustainability enhancement. In this presentation, some results from across these application areas will be discussed to illustrate CaNeTA’s utility for supporting the enhancement of risk management decision making in multiple contexts.